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Abstract. Tropical cirrus clouds play a critical role in the climate system and are a major source of uncertainty in our understanding of global warming. Tropical cirrus are affected by processes spanning a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from ice microphysics on cloud scales to mesoscale convective organization and planetary wave dynamics. This complexity makes tropical cirrus clouds notoriously difficult to model and has left many important questions stubbornly unanswered. At the same time, their multi-scale nature makes them well positioned to benefit from the rise of global, high-resolution simulations of Earth's atmosphere and a growing abundance of remotely sensed and in situ observations. Rapid progress requires coordinated efforts to take advantage of these modern computational and observational abilities. In this Opinion, we review recent progress in cirrus studies, highlight important questions that remain unanswered, and discuss promising paths forward. We find that significant progress has been made in understanding the life cycle of convectively generated ``anvil cirrus and how their macrophysical properties respond to large-scale controls. On the other hand, much work remains to be done to understand how small-scale anvil processes and the climatological anvil radiative effect may respond to global warming. Thin, in situ-formed cirrus are now known to be closely tied to the thermal structure and humidity of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), but uncertainty at the microphysical scale remains a significant barrier to understanding how these clouds regulate the TTL moisture and temperature budgets, as well as the mixing ratio of water vapor entering the stratosphere. Model representation of ice-nucleating particles, water vapor supersaturation, and ice depositional growth continue to pose great challenges to cirrus modeling. We believe that major advances in the understanding of tropical cirrus can be made through a combination of cross-tool synthesis and cross-scale studies conducted by cross-disciplinary research teams. 

Abstract. Cirrus clouds that form in the tropical tropopause layer(TTL) can play a key role in vertical transport through the uppertroposphere and lower stratosphere, which can significantly impact theradiative energy budget and stratospheric chemistry. However, the lack ofrealistic representation of natural ice cloud habits in microphysicalparameterizations can lead to uncertainties in cloud-related processes andcloud–climate feedbacks. The main goal of this study is to investigate therole of different cloud regimes and the associated ice habits in regulatingthe properties of the TTL. We compare aircraft measurements from theStratoClim field campaign to a set of numerical experiments at the scale of large-eddy simulations (LESs) for the same case study that employ differentmicrophysics schemes. Aircraft measurements over the southern slopes of theHimalayas captured high ice water content (HIWC) up to 2400 ppmv and iceparticle aggregates exceeding 700 µm in size with unusually longresidence times. The observed ice particles were mainly of liquid origin,with a small amount formed in situ. The corresponding profile of ice water content (IWC) fromthe ERA5 reanalysis corroborates the presence of HIWC detrained from deep-convective plumes in the TTL but underestimates HIWC by an order ofmagnitude. In the TTL, only the scheme that predicts ice habits canreproduce the observed HIWC, ice number concentration, and bimodal iceparticle size distribution. The lower range of particle sizes is mostlyrepresented by planar and columnar habits, while the upper range isdominated by aggregates. Large aggregates with sizes between 600 and 800 µm have fall speeds of less than 20 cm s−1, which explains thelong residence time of the aggregates in the TTL. Planar ice particles ofliquid origin contribute substantially to HIWC. The columnar and aggregatehabits are in the in situ range with lower IWC and number concentrations. Forall habits, the ice number concentration increases with decreasingtemperature. For the planar ice habit, relative humidity is inverselycorrelated with fall speed. This correlation is less evident for the othertwo ice habits. In the lower range of supersaturation with respect to ice,the columnar habit has the highest fall speed. The difference in ice numberconcentration across habits can be up to 4 orders of magnitude, withaggregates occurring in much smaller numbers. We demonstrate and quantifythe linear relationship between the differential sedimentation of pristineice crystals and the size of the aggregates that form when pristine crystalscollide. The slope of this relationship depends on which pristine ice habitsediments faster. Each simulated ice habit is associated with distinctradiative and latent heating rates. This study suggests that a modelconfiguration nested down to LES scales with a microphysicalparameterization that predicts ice shape evolution is crucial to provide anaccurate representation of the microphysical properties of TTL cirrus andthus the associated (de)hydration process. 

Abstract The vertical profile of clear-sky radiative cooling places important constraints on the vertical structure of convection and associated clouds. Simple theory using the cooling-to-space approximation is presented to indicate that the cooling rate in the upper troposphere should increase with surface temperature. The theory predicts how the cooling rate depends on lapse rate in an atmosphere where relative humidity remains approximately a fixed function of temperature. Radiative cooling rate is insensitive to relative humidity because of cancellation between the emission and transmission of radiation by water vapor. This theory is tested with one-dimensional radiative transfer calculations and radiative-convective equilibrium simulations. For climate simulations that produce an approximately moist adiabatic lapse rate, the radiative cooling profile becomes increasingly top-heavy with increasing surface temperature. If the temperature profile warms more slowly than a moist adiabatic profile in mid-troposphere, then the cooling rate in the upper troposphere is reduced and that in the lower troposphere is increased. This has important implications for convection, clouds and associated deep and shallow circulations. 

Abstract Satellite observations of tropical maritime convection indicate an afternoon maximum in anvil cloud fraction that cannot be explained by the diurnal cycle of deep convection peaking at night. We use idealized cloud-resolving model simulations of single anvil cloud evolution pathways, initialized at different times of the day, to show that tropical anvil clouds formed during the day are more widespread and longer lasting than those formed at night. This diurnal difference is caused by shortwave radiative heating, which lofts and spreads anvil clouds via a mesoscale circulation that is largely absent at night, when a different, longwave-driven circulation dominates. The nighttime circulation entrains dry environmental air that erodes cloud top and shortens anvil lifetime. Increased ice nucleation in more turbulent nighttime conditions supported by the longwave cloud-top cooling and cloud-base heating dipole cannot compensate for the effect of diurnal shortwave radiative heating. Radiative–convective equilibrium simulations with a realistic diurnal cycle of insolation confirm the crucial role of shortwave heating in lofting and sustaining anvil clouds. The shortwave-driven mesoscale ascent leads to daytime anvils with larger ice crystal size, number concentration, and water content at cloud top than their nighttime counterparts. Significance Statement Deep convective activity and rainfall peak at night over the tropical oceans. However, anvil clouds that originate from the tops of deep convective clouds reach their largest extent in the afternoon hours. We study the underlying physical mechanisms that lead to this discrepancy by simulating the evolution of anvil clouds with a high-resolution model. We find that the absorption of sunlight by ice crystals lofts and spreads the daytime anvil clouds over a larger area, increasing their lifetime, changing their properties, and thus influencing their impact on climate. Our findings show that it is important not only to simulate the correct onset of deep convection but also to correctly represent anvil cloud evolution for skillful simulations of the tropical energy balance. 

Abstract This study examines how the congestus mode of tropical convection is expressed in numerical simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE). We draw insights from the ensemble of cloud‐resolving models participating in the RCE Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) and from a new ensemble of two‐dimensional RCE simulations. About half of the RCEMIP models produce a congestus circulation that is distinct from the deep and shallow modes. In both ensembles, the congestus circulation strengthens with large‐scale convective aggregation, and in the 2D ensemble this comes at the expense of the shallow circulation centered at the top of the boundary layer. Congestus invigoration occurs because aggregation dries out the upper troposphere, which allows moist congestus outflow to undergo strong radiative cooling. The cooling generates divergence that promotes continued congestus overturning (a positive feedback). This mechanism is fundamentally similar to the driving of shallow circulations by radiative cooling at the top of the surface boundary layer. Aggregation and congestus invigoration are also associated with enhanced static stability throughout the troposphere, but a modeling experiment shows that enhanced stability is not necessary for congestus invigoration; rather, invigoration itself contributes to the stability increase via its impact on the vertical profile of radiative cooling. Changes in entrainment cooling are also found to play an important role in stability enhancement, as has been suggested previously. When present, congestus circulations have a large impact on the mean RCE atmospheric state; for this reason, their inconsistent representation in models and their impact on the real tropical atmosphere warrant further scrutiny. 

Abstract The radiative cooling rate in the tropical upper troposphere is expected to increase as climate warms. Since the tropics are approximately in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), this implies an increase in the convective heating rate, which is the sum of the latent heating rate and the eddy heat flux convergence. We examine the impact of these changes on the vertical profile of cloud ice amount in cloud-resolving simulations of RCE. Three simulations are conducted: a control run, a warming run, and an experimental run in which there is no warming but a temperature forcing is imposed to mimic the warming-induced increase in radiative cooling. Surface warming causes a reduction in cloud fraction at all upper-tropospheric temperature levels but an increase in the ice mixing ratio within deep convective cores. The experimental run has more cloud ice than the warming run at fixed temperature despite the fact that their latent heating rates are equal, which suggests that the efficiency of latent heating by cloud ice increases with warming. An analytic expression relating the ice-related latent heating rate to a number of other factors is derived and used to understand the model results. This reveals that the increase in latent heating efficiency is driven mostly by 1) the migration of isotherms to lower pressure and 2) a slight warming of the top of the convective layer. These physically robust changes act to reduce the residence time of ice at any particular temperature level, which tempers the response of the mean cloud ice profile to warming. Significance StatementHere we examine how the amount of condensed ice in part of the atmosphere—the tropical upper troposphere (UT)—responds to global warming. In the UT, the energy released during ice formation is balanced by the emission of radiation to space. This emission will strengthen with warming, suggesting that there will also be more ice. Using a model of the tropical atmosphere, we find that the increase in ice amount is mitigated by a reduction in the amount of time ice spends in the UT. This could have important implications for the cloud response to global warming, and future work should focus on how these changes are manifested across the distribution of convective cloud types.